Waging Civil Conflict: Essays on Counterinsurgency and Repression

My dissertation explains governments' strategies for using force in civil conflict. Combined, these papers make two primary contributions. First, each highlights why, counterintuitively, governments rely on tactics that have negative consequences---mass repression, forced resettlement, and destruction of property. Second, I show how opportunity cost shapes citizens' decision-making, leading them to take actions that reinforce governments' reliance on particularly destructive tactics. The Wages of Repression: Incidents of government repression vary in which individuals are targeted. Building on a conceptual distinction between targeted repression (against opposition group members) and mass repression (against citizens broadly), I explain why regimes use both types of repression in combination. Targeted and mass repression have distinct effects on civilians' incentives to support an opposition. Targeted repression decreases the benefit of challenging the regime, activating security concerns. Mass repression affects individuals' material wellbeing, improving opportunities for participants in the economy. These participation and material wellbeing mechanisms make targeted and mass repression jointly optimal for the regime. By identifying distinct logics for targeted and mass repression, I show in some cases, both types of repression are complements, meaning it is optimal for governments to employ more targeted and mass repression simultaneously. Forced Economic Migration: Why do governments manipulate the movement of citizens in conflict? I develop a model of forced resettlement by a counterinsurgent regime that show how economic incentives influence, and in some cases determine, the form and intensity of displacement. Specifically, governments may use forced resettlement to affect labor markets. As the government uses force to retake contested territory, it decreases the opportunity cost of migration for citizens in conflict-affected areas. This can lead to an influx of migrants to government-controlled regions, increasing the supply of labor and exerting downward pressure on wages. Governments may forcibly resettle citizens to avoid an oversupply of labor in secure areas, or an undersupply in areas in which they regain control. I compare the economic incentives that lead to two common forms of resettlement, government-controlled model villages and internal displacement camps, and show that increasing economic development in government-controlled regions may increase levels of forced resettlement. Targeting Lives and Livelihoods: I develop a model of civil conflict that explains why combatants choose to destroy capital under control of their opponents, as a substitute for or in combination with violence against non-combatants. A government and an insurgent group can direct force against two types of targets: citizens that may support their opponent and the natural and produced capital that enables each side to fight. The choice of tactics by each party affects citizens' decision of which side to support, which may lead to either moderation or escalation of the use of destructive war-fighting tactics. I show violence against citizens and destruction of capital are often substitute tactics, and that governments and insurgent groups adopt opposite strategies. One side chooses high levels of violence against citizens and the other side chooses high levels of capital destruction. Moreover, I show that despite backlash against the use of force, violence against citizens may benefit the government.PHDPolitical ScienceUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/162913/1/sunjs_1.pd

House Price Changes and Idiosyncratic Risk: The Impact of Property Characteristics

While the average change in house prices is related to changes in fundamentals or perhaps market-wide bubbles, not all houses in a market appreciate at the same rate. The primary focus of our study is to investigate the reasons for these variations in price changes among houses within a market. We draw on two theories for guidance, one related to the optimal search strategy for sellers of atypical dwellings and the other focusing on the bargaining process between a seller and potential buyers. We hypothesize that houses will appreciate at different rates depending on the characteristics of the property and the change in the strength of the housing market. These hypotheses are supported using data from three New Zealand housing markets.Atypicality, Bargaining, Housing Risk, House Price Appreciation, Search Models

House Price Changes and Idiosyncratic Risk: The Impact of Property Characteristics

While the average change in house prices is related to changes in fundamentals or perhaps market-wide bubbles, not all houses in a market appreciate at the same rate.The primary focus of our study is to investigate the reasons for these variations in price changes among houses within a market. We draw on two theories for guidance, one related to the optimal search strategy for sellers of atypical dwellings and the other focusing on the bargaining process between a seller and potential buyers. We hypothesize that houses will appreciate at different rates depending on the characteristics of the property and the change in the strength of the housing market. These hypotheses are supported using data from three New Zealand housing markets.Atypicality; Bargaining; Housing Risk; House Price Appreciation; Search Models

A novel eight amino acid insertion contributes to the hemagglutinin cleavability and the virulence of a highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H7N3) virus in mice

AbstractIn 2012, an avian influenza A H7N3 (A/Mexico/InDRE7218/2012; Mx/7218) virus was responsible for two confirmed cases of human infection and led to the death or culling of more than 22 million chickens in Jalisco, Mexico. Interestingly, this virus acquired an 8-amino acid (aa)-insertion (..PENPK-DRKSRHRR-TR/GLF) near the hemagglutinin (HA) cleavage site by nonhomologous recombination with host rRNA. It remains unclear which specific residues at the cleavage site contribute to the virulence of H7N3 viruses in mammals. Using loss-of-function approaches, we generated a series of cleavage site mutant viruses by reverse genetics and characterized the viruses in vitro and in vivo. We found that the 8-aa insertion and the arginine at position P4 of the Mx/7218 HA cleavage site are essential for intracellular HA cleavage in 293T cells, but have no effect on the pH of membrane fusion. However, we identified a role for the histidine residue at P5 position in viral fusion pH. In mice, the 8-aa insertion is required for Mx/7218 virus virulence; however, the basic residues upstream of the P4 position are dispensable for virulence. Overall, our study provides the first line of evidence that the insertion in the Mx/7218 virus HA cleavage site confers its intracellular cleavability, and consequently contributes to enhanced virulence in mice

Linear Viscoelasticity and Time—Alcohol Superposition of Chitosan/Hyaluronic Acid Complex Coacervates

Complex coacervation is an associative liquid−liquid phase separation phenomenon resulting from the complexation of oppositely charged macroions. While it is well-known that the phase behavior and rheological character of the resulting coacervates can vary as a function of the identity of the various species present (i.e., macroions, salt, and solution conditions), the effect of solvent quality has been rarely studied. Here, the effect of adding small amounts of either methanol or ethanol to complex coacervates of the natural polymers chitosan and hyaluronic acid is described. The effect of cosolvent addition on the phase behavior and linear viscoelasticity of the resulting coacervates is characterized. Lastly, we explore the potential for using not only time−salt superposition but also time−alcohol and time−salt−alcohol superposition to provide insight into coacervate rheology